US Job Growth Strengthens In September As Unemployment Edges Up To 4.4%

November 21, 2025: The US employment report for September painted a mixed picture where hiring began at a low rate while the unemployment rate moved up high. The delayed report pushed by a government shutdown for 43-days, suggests a weakening labor market and dwindling motor through the year.

Job Gains Recovery September Lift

Nonfarm pay rolls increased by 119,000 jobs in September viewed as a large increase compared to the revised 4,000 job decline in August which is also a 50,000 comes in better than expected. In addition while the overall labor market conditions are still weak hiring activity signs do show slight improvement.

Nonetheless the more overarching trend is subdued. Meaningful negative changes have occurred over recent months indicating a continued decline in momentum with lower projections for total job growth approximately 911,000 jobs in the 12 months ahead to march than previously reported.

Unemployment Rate Rises To 4.4%

Although there was an increase in payrolls the unemployment rate increased by 4.3 to 4.4% in September indicating some levels of weakness in the industries. The late opinion poll did not allow the publication of the October data which will be combined with the November report published in the middle of December.

Shutting Down Delays And Data Breaks

The September report was to be released on October 3 but because of the unprecedented 43-day government shutdown data collection was suspended and for that reason the October unemployment survey could not be completed. This will also create a lag in the immediate policy analysis as future Federal Reserve meetings will not benefit from the entire monthly labour statistics calendar.

Labour Market Structural Change

There are deep structural changes taking place in the labor market. Automation and AI are erasing entry level jobs thus resulting in jobless growth. With the smaller labor supply due to declining immigration employment growth is needed far less than population growth. Simultaneously trade policy uncertainty and a continuing court case regarding tariff authority have made businesses-specially small businesses-more cautious about hiring thus contributing to the slowdown of the overall labor market improvement.

Sectoral Pressures Persist

Although the total payrolls are showing positivity a number of industries are still losing workers. According to economists however the September data is dated as a result of the shutdown but will be included in short term calculations of the economic health before the Federal Reserve holds its December policy conference.

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